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The Debt Dynamic of selected Euro Area countries and sustainable paths for fiscal consolidation

This paper analyses possible patterns for the debt-to-GDP ratio in France, Italy and Spain with a small macroeconomic model. The role of international macroeconomic variables (such as the US GDP growth rates, prices of raw materials, ECB monetary policy stance) and domestic policy instruments is analyzed in the debt dynamics. We find that external conditions, together with policies aimed to stimulate the growth and fulfilling Maastricht restrictions on deficit, play a fundamental role for fiscal consolidation in these countries and help to reach a debt level in line with pre-crisis values.