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Economic growth and Public Debt: beyond Debt-Thresholds. Theoretical and empirical issues

The idea that public debt may represent a burden for the economic system as a whole has distant origins and focuses on who and how should pay for debt, and with what consequences on the economy. Nevertheless, particularly influential both for academic research and the implementation of the fiscal corrective policies was the empirical paper proposed by Reinhart and Rogoff in 2010 at the dawn of the crisis. Reinhart and Rogoff (2010), in a large panel of countries, identified a critical threshold of 90% of the debt-to-GDP ratio beyond which debt is harmful to growth. Several countries in the world were fast approaching that threshold or already were well beyond it. Though Reinhart and Rogoff’s work was affected by many flaws, it has spurred buoyant empirical research in search of the general debt thresholds above which growth is jeopardised by public debt. Further works have supported the existence of critical debt-to-GDP ratios under various time and space observational fields, but results of these researches are inconclusive or controversial, as discussed in Chapter 2. Country-specific characteristics and contingencies play in fact a prominent role, thus prompting a branch of literature that attempts to comprehensively understand the debt-growth relationship and its determinants […]