Will the sovereign debt of Italy, Spain and Portugal remain viable even if interest rates rise again and a moderate recession occurs? This debt sustainability analysis which comprises three relatively realistic scenarios and extends to 2022 comes to a differentiated conclusion. On the one hand, public debt ratios remain high not only in the moderately pessimistic scenario that includes a brief recession in 2019. This is also true in the baseline scenario (with rather conservative assumptions), mainly in Italy and to a lesser extent in Portugal and Spain. Only in the moderately optimistic scenario is the reduction in the public debt ratio somewhat faster in Italy, and all the more so in Portugal and Spain. However, even in this scenario it will take considerably longer than 2022 until the public debt ratios in Italy and Portugal will fall below 100 per cent of GDP. On the other hand, the public debt does not spiral out of control under the chosen assumptions, even in the rather pessimistic scenario. An important prerequisite is that fiscal policy, particularly in Italy (and somewhat less in Portugal and Spain), reacts with moderate consolidation. The primary surplus needed for stabilization is considerably below 3 per cent of GDP and thus within a reachable range. Therefore, there is no reason for the financial market to regard the debt situation unsustainable under normal conditions. However, this might be different if a deeper crisis or self-fulfilling prophecies on the financial market occured or if populist parties dismissed the course of moderate fiscal consolidation. […]