Global market-based measures of credit risk were higher over the past week. Crude oil prices rose over the week 6.9% to a two-year high of $49.16 on September 6. Gulf coast refinery and pipeline activity is gradually returning to normal and inventories rebuilt after Hurricane Harvey’s catastrophic effect. In the midst of it, the US southeast is bracing for Hurricane Irma, described as the worst hurricane on record. The United States’ Sovereign EDFTM (Expected Default Frequency) metric1, which measures the expected probability of default over a five-year time horizon, increased over the past week by 0.01% to 0.07%.[…]