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Fiscal Monitor Update: As Downside Risks Rise, Fiscal Policy Has To Walk a Narrow Path

Deficits in many advanced economies fell significantly during 2011, and most plan substantial adjustment this year. Continued adjustment is necessary for medium-term debt sustainability, but should ideally occur at a pace that supports adequate growth in output and employment. Given the large adjustment already in train this year, governments should avoid responding to any unexpected downturn in growth by further tightening policies, and should instead allow the automatic stabilizers to operate, as long as financing is available and sustainability concerns permit. Countries with enough fiscal space, including some in the euro area, should reconsider the pace of near-term adjustment. At the same time, some countries—notably, the United States and Japan—need to clarify their medium-term debt-reduction strategies. Adjustment should be supported by the availability of adequate nonmarket financing when, as in the euro area, market confidence is slow to respond to reforms.

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Fiscal Monitor Update: As Downside Risks Rise, Fiscal Policy Has To Walk a Narrow Path