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Post-crisis economic governance in Latvia: the European Semester, the Balance-of-Payments programme, and euro accession convergence

Following-up on Latvia’s formal adoption into the Eurozone this July 2013 and the regular European Semester policy coordination cycle, the paper explores recent economic governance in Latvia – the only country which has been under three distinct EU economic governance frameworks. Aside the euro accession convergence procedure and the European Semester, Latvia recently also accomplished the Balance-of-Payments (BoP) programme as it faced a default in 2008. Covering the time period approximately from early 2011 to mid-2013, the paper aims to explore the procedures and implications of these three frameworks, as various economic policies have been designed by collaborations between the national authorities, on the one hand, and Brussels institutions, on the other. By ‘process tracing’ via the relevant policy documents and ‘elite interviews’ with policy makers in Riga and Brussels, the paper finds that until Latvia’s formal accession to the Eurozone this summer the Latvian government – inspired by a particular set of rationales and ideas prioritizing 'market confidence' and 'financial stability' – has exercised considerable discretion, strategically cherry-picking the governance frameworks to comply with its preferences. Specifically, the government secured compliance with the euro accession inflation target at the cost of (postponing) urgent reforms in social policy, as set out by the Country-Specific Recommendations (CSRs).[...]