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Study on the sovereign debt sustainability in Greece during the economic adjustment programmes: 2010-2018
In 2018, Greece exited from eight years of adjustment programmes. Three programmes totalling €288 billion of financial assistance were made available to Greece – the first of the euro area countries to request emergency financial support to avoid default. At the time, no EU mechanism existed to deal with a sovereign debt crisis. This study presents an assessment of the role of sovereign debt sustainability in the three adjustment programmes for Greece, focusing on five dimensions: (i) debt sustainability assessment, (ii) debt restructuring, (iii) structural reforms, (iv) the impact of PSI and (v) access to markets. The three programmes were different and their evolution reflects changes in players and economic-political context. Overall, the overarching objective of debt sustainability and market access seems to have been achieved only by the third programme. OSI played a key role in this. The assessment of PSI is mixed: while nominal debt was reduced, debt-to-GDP ratio only fell one year, and then returned to its previous level. Delays and a lack of implementation of reforms broadly emerge as major obstacles to the success of the programmes, their impact on sovereign debt sustainability appears mostly indirect.