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Global Economic Prospects as of September 30, 2010:A Moderating Pace of Global Recovery

Since the end of the great recession around the middle of 2009, the world economy has, as forecast, staged a quite vigorous, V-shaped recovery. Real GDP growth for 2010 is now expected to exceed slightly even my buoyant forecast of 4.5 percent. This result, however, embodies substantial divergence between the morerapid-than-expected growth of most key emerging-market and developing countries (6.5 percent for 2010) and the somewhat disappointing pace of recovery in most of the advanced economies (2.8 percent for 2010).