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Economic consequences of high public debt and lessons learned from past episodes

The current debate on the role of public debt and sovereign creditworthiness in the euro area, is an essential piece in the context of the broader reform agenda on how to strengthen EMU resilience. This paper focuses on sustainability: it reviews the risks associated with regimes of high debt and stresses the need for comprehensive solutions to mitigate such risks in the future. In particular, the paper acts as a reminder that further risk reduction is needed - efforts in this respect should not be overlooked and should complement those to strengthen Euro Area (EA) stabilisation and risksharing capacity. Keeping public debt at high levels is a source of vulnerability, especially in EA, as it makes the economy less resilient to shocks and may further restrain a country’s LT growth potential. Reducing the currently high public debt levels may be more difficult than in the past and urgency of task depends on risks to debt sustainability. A menu of reforms, including further consolidation and structural reforms, is needed to reduce the currently high debt ratios in many countries. Looking beyond, further institutional changes are needed to make EMU more resilient to future debt crisis.