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Sovereign Debt in the U.S. and Growth Expectations
This paper shows empirical evidence and theory consistent with the US government using debt to adjust public consumption to news about long-term growth. First, using historical forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) since 1984, I find that government purchases and deficits are positively correlated with expectations about long-term tax revenue and GDP growth. I also document that these facts are robust to controlling for current growth and to using à-la-Kalman estimated forecast values for a longer time span. Second, I present a simple open economy RBC model with stochastic productivity trend and endogenous public purchases decided by a forward-looking government. Calibrated to the US economy, the model produces moments similar to those observed in the data. Finally, the role of imperfect information is found negligible to explain these facts.