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Threshold Effects of Public Debt on Economic Growth in the Euro Area Economies
This paper sheds new light on the growth implications of public debt introducing a dynamic panel threshold model by accounting for regime dependent intercepts. The focus is on a panel of 12 Eurozone economies over the 1980-2012 period. The presence of threshold effects is tested and point estimates for debt-to-GDP ratio are estimated by using multiple threshold model advancing on Hansen (1999), Caner and Hansen (2004) and Bick (2010). The findings are based on five-year averages. My empirical results confirm the evidence for double threshold model by indicating a statistically significant nonlinear relationship between debt-to-GDP ratio and economic growth. The estimated threshold values are 71.66% and 80.21%.The impact of debt on GDP growth is positive and highly significant whenever debt-to-GDP ratio is below 71.66%, thus debt becomes a source of economic stability. This impact changes its direction and strength once debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds the first threshold value. Between 71.66% and 80.21%, debt-to-GDP ratio has negative impact on economic outcome. And above 80.21%, the impact remains negative but loses its strength. The decreasing negative relationship can be explained with the non-Keynesian impact of fiscal consolidation. [...]