Header and navigation menu

Page content

Threshold Effects of Public Debt on Economic Growth in the Euro Area Economies

This paper sheds new light on the growth implications of public debt introducing a dynamic panel threshold model by accounting for regime dependent intercepts. The focus is on a panel of 12 Eurozone economies over the 1980-2012 period. The presence of threshold effects is tested and point estimates for debt-to-GDP ratio are estimated by using multiple threshold model advancing on Hansen (1999), Caner and Hansen (2004) and Bick (2010). The findings are based on five-year averages. My empirical results confirm the evidence for double threshold model by indicating a statistically significant nonlinear relationship between debt-to-GDP ratio and economic growth. The estimated threshold values are 71.66% and 80.21%.The impact of debt on GDP growth is positive and highly significant whenever debt-to-GDP ratio is below 71.66%, thus debt becomes a source of economic stability. This impact changes its direction and strength once debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds the first threshold value. Between 71.66% and 80.21%, debt-to-GDP ratio has negative impact on economic outcome. And above 80.21%, the impact remains negative but loses its strength. The decreasing negative relationship can be explained with the non-Keynesian impact of fiscal consolidation. [...]