Header and navigation menu

Page content

Global and euro imbalances: China and Germany

We analyse global and euro area imbalances by focusing on China and Germany as large surplus and creditor countries. In the 2000s, domestic reforms in both countries expanded the effective labour force, restrained wages, shifted income towards profits and increased corporate saving. As a result, both economies’ current account surpluses widened before the global financial crisis, and that of Germany has proven more persistent as domestic investment has remained subdued. The Chinese economy is an early-stage creditor country, holding a short equity position and long position in safe officially-held debt. Germany’s balanced net debt and equity claims mark it as a mature creditor that provides insurance to the rest of the world, especially the euro area. China pays to lay off equity risk onto the rest of the world while Germany, by contrast, harvests a moderate yield on its net claims. In both economies, the shortfall of the net international investment position from cumulated current account surpluses suggests that total returns have been lower than current yields, owing to exchange rate changes, asymmetric valuation gains, and, in Germany’s case, credit losses.