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Analysing government debt sustainability in the euro area
The rapid build-up of government debt in an environment of financial instability and low growth has increased the need for an assessment of government debt sustainability. Despite frontloaded and comprehensive fiscal consolidation in euro area countries, risks to debt sustainability need to be closely monitored. To assess the size of these risks, conventional debt sustainability analysis has become a core element of enhanced country surveillance. Such an analysis is, however, subject to several limitations. It depends crucially on the choice of underlying assumptions and analytical tool and its findings are subject to considerable uncertainty. What is required, therefore, is a more comprehensive approach to debt sustainability assessments, comprising a more systematic in-depth assessment of country-specific risks. This would need to include a systematic monitoring of a broad set of fiscal liabilities and private sector imbalances, replacing the current ad hoc approach to accounting for such risks [...]