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What Determines Debt Intolerance? The Role of Political and Monetary Institutions
Why do some states default on their debt more often than others? We argue that sovereign default is the outcome of a political struggle among different groups of citizens. It is more likely to happen if: (i) domestic debt-holders are politically weak; (ii) the political costs of the financial turmoil typically triggered by a sovereign bankruptcy are small. We show that these conditions are in turn more likely to be present if a country lacks a politically strong middle class and/or a sufficiently independent central bank.