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Future Public Debt Accumulation and Saving in the United States
This paper will first review some of the evidence supporting the projections of very large future deficits in the United States. Given no change in current policies, large deficits are very likely to become quite persistent, mainly as the result of the Medicare program. The next issue addressed is the question of whether these very reasonable projections imply that the programs are currently eroding saving and capital formation. The evidence for this is weak. This result may bear on the desirability of different types of reforms of the entitlement programs.