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On Federal Deficits and Debt, Monetary and Fiscal Policy

President Biden signed a $1.9 trillion COVID relief package (the “American Rescue Plan”) on March 11, 2021. Without a corresponding increase in taxes, this plan has set off alarm bells for those concerned about the expansion of government deficits and debt. Mainstream economists have raised issues of excessive inflation, “crowding out” of private sector investment, and an unacceptable repayment burden on the young and future generations. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that these concerns are based on a misunderstanding of the role played by the deficit, debt, and taxes in the U.S. economy, even a misunderstanding of how certain parts of the U.S. financial system actually work. The paper explores the beginnings of paper (fiat) currency and government bonds in the U.S. and demonstrates that without federal deficit spending, the private sector would lose steam and face a recession. Without federal bonds, the government would lose a lever to control interest rates and inflation, not to mention the private sector’s loss of a risk-free, interest-bearing alternative to cash. This is not to say all deficits (or all government expenditures, for that matter) are good. Some actually do cause excessive inflation, exacerbate wealth disparity or have other harmful effects. These are serious problems and they need to be addressed effectively. […]