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Is the ECB at risk of becoming an underachiever?

This note presents evidence suggesting that the hypothesis according to which the ECB might not have done whatever was needed to achieve its price stability objective cannot be easily rejected and needs to be considered carefully. The evidence is based on a relatively simple set of indicators. The intention is to stimulate a more thorough analysis of the policies that have been implemented in recent years. Counterfactual policy analysis is obviously very complex. However, it is interesting to note that while several authors – including those within the ECB - have concentrated their efforts on assessing what would have happened to growth and inflation had monetary policy been less expansionary, there is yet little work on the opposite scenario, i.e. of what would have happened if monetary policy had been more expansionary in a more timely way.