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Fiscal multipliers and the timing of consolidation
This article seeks to link the debate surrounding short-term fiscal multipliers (defined as the change in real GDP that follows a unitary fiscal shock) with the medium and longer-term impact that fiscal consolidation has on debt sustainability and output. It recalls that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the size of short-term fiscal multipliers. Notably, multipliers may be larger in deep recessions or financial crises, but the negative impact of fiscal consolidation is mitigated when public finances are weak. Nevertheless, there is a strong case for frontloading fiscal consolidation also in difficult times – particularly for countries that are under market pressure – and frontloading is advisable in view of political economy considerations. Simulations using plausible values for multipliers suggest that any increase in the debt ratio following episodes of fiscal consolidation is likely to be short-lived at most and reversed over the medium term. Furthermore, back loading fiscal consolidation would generally require a larger overall fiscal effort to reduce debt ratios. Finally, there is evidence that multipliers are positive (i.e. that fiscal consolidation is conducive to higher output) in the long term. Overall, when determining the fiscal adjustment path and the composition of fiscal consolidation, both the short-term costs and the longer-term benefits need to be taken into account.