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Fiscal Spillovers and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area
In this paper the author sets up a basic open New-Keynesian model with government spending shocks for each of the eleven original member countries of the Euro area that are tied together with the GVAR methodology of trade weights between the countries. Fiscal spillovers are positive if small countries increase their government spending and negative in the case of bigger countries as the increase in the common interest rate is overcompensating the positive effect. Because of Bayesian estimation of the single countries with lots of time series spillovers are mostly significant, unlike in most of the other GVAR studies. Through a shock to the common Taylor rule monetary transmission with respect to output and inflation can be analyzed. The effect is qualitatively the same but differs in terms of magnitude depending on the countries, especially for inflation. Finally the author shows that it makes a difference if euro area aggregates are targeted by monetary policy or the single countries' response added up with interlinkages taken care of.