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Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies

This paper assesses the effects of fiscal consolidations associated with public debt reduction on medium-term output growth during periods of private debt deleveraging. The analysis covers 107 countries and 160 episodes of public debt reduction during 1980 and 2012. It shows that expenditure-based fiscal adjustments can dampen growth when there are credit restrictions. Instead, fiscal adjustments that are gradual and rely on a mix of revenue and expenditure measures can support output expansion. In this context, protecting public investment is critical for medium-term growth, as is the implementation of supply-side, productivity-enhancing reforms.