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How Credible is the ECB's Inflation Targeting? An Empirical Examination of Sovereign Bond Yields
Recent financial turmoil has led the EU, the IMF and the ECB to use various bailouts and other supporting activities in Europe. With a two-fold analysis (i.e., long-run analysis and event study), I investigate whether the ECB's inflation targeting is still credible regarding the various activities the ECB has undertaken in order to solve the sovereign debt crisis. I argue that in the long-run, the ECB's inflation targeting is very credible at least before the crisis. During the crisis, however, the yield impact of an ECB announcement to buy sovereign bonds is highly significant indicating that investors did not expect this measure. Both results are in line with existing literature suggesting that ECB credibility in general was very high before the crisis and that unexpected ECB announcements have an impact on yields and prices.