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Reassessing the Fiscal Mix for Successful Debt Reduction
This paper assesses the determinants of successful debt reduction in a large sample of countries over the last three decades using a survival model. Results show that increases in the primary balances are the main source of debt reduction. Expenditure-based fiscal adjustments are key for reducing the length of debt consolidation spells, including in the aftermath of financial crises. Political fragmentation, the proximity of elections, and weak institutions make the adjustment process more difficult to achieve, while structural reforms that help spur growth decrease the duration of debt reduction. In contrast to previous findings, however, we show that when adjustment needs are large—as in many advanced economies today—fiscal consolidations that rely also on revenue-enhancing measures are more likely to accelerate debt reduction. This result is particularly strong when countries experience a financial crisis and underscores the importance of credible fiscal plans to reduce sovereign credit risk.