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An Overview of the 2017 Stability and Convergence Programmes and an Assessment of the Euro Area Fiscal Stance for 2018
This paper provides an overview of the 2017 Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs). It takes a glance at budgetary developments in 2016 and sets out the fiscal plans over 2017-2020, both at the country level and the euro area and EU as a whole. It also presents an analysis of the recent and prospective fiscal stance in the euro area. […] Public debt has peaked in 2014 at around 94% of GDP in euro area (88% in the EU) and is projected to fall steadily over the programme horizon to reach around 83% of GDP in the euro area (78% in the EU) in 2020. The main drivers for the debt reduction going forward are primary surpluses supported by a favourable snowball effect. On the medium-term, sustainability risks (up to 2031) remain elevated in a number of Member States. Medium-term debt projections show that if the fiscal plans in the SCPs were fully implemented, additional fiscal consolidation measures totalling around ½ percentage point of GDP would be needed over the next five years to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60% by 2031. However, in a number of Member States the needed consolidation measures are more significant.