Page content
Review of the Commonwealth Government Securities Market. Discussion Pape.
The success of the Government’s fiscal strategy over recent years has reduced Commonwealth general government net debt as a proportion of GDP from almost 20 per cent in 1995-96 to 5 per cent in 2001-02. The fiscal strategy contributes to the current low interest rate environment, a key factor underpinning Australia’s recent economic strength. While the Government’s fiscal record has delivered positive economic results, it also has generated concerns from some financial market participants and commentators about the future viability of the Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS) market. They argue the CGS market plays a critical role in the economy that the private sector cannot easily replicate. The Government acknowledged these concerns in the 2002-03 Budget and committed to take stakeholders’ views into account in considering the issue. This paper sets out a range of issues, to stimulate contributions from interested stakeholders so that they can form part of the Government’s decision making process. The paper covers the range of possible roles that the CGS market can play and possible private sector alternatives, and assesses the measures the Government would have to implement to maintain the market. The framework setting out the issues is particularly important given the lack of international evidence. The other OECD economies that have well-developed financial markets operate with a significant government debt market. These economies have a much higher stock of government debt than Australia. Some market participants argue for maintaining the CGS market. Given the fiscal strategy, this would require the Government to accumulate a substantial portfolio of financial assets. The Government therefore must assess whether it is necessary to maintain the CGS market and whether doing so will give benefits that are likely to outweigh the risks associated with accumulating substantial assets.